The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve

The term structure of real yields and expected inflation are two unobserved components of the nominal yield curve. The primary objectives of this study are to decompose nominal yields into their expected real yield and inflation components and to examine their behaviour using state-space and regime-switching frameworks. The dynamic yield-curve models capture three well-known latent factors – level, slope, and curvature – that accurately aggregate the information for the nominal yields and the expected real and inflation components for all maturities. The nominal yield curve is found to increase slightly with a slope of about 120 basis points, while the real yield curve slopes upward by about 20 basis points, and the expected inflation curve is virtually flat at slightly above 2 per cent. The regime-switching estimations reveal that the nominal yield, real yield and expected inflation curves have shifted down significantly since 1999.     

Risk sentiment and firms’ liquidity in the French market

This paper investigates the impact of risk sentiment on market liquidity by using panel data. We use six risk word lists; uncertain, weak model, negative, legal, opportunity, and environmental & social responsibility word lists to measure the risk sentiment. Concerning the liquidity proxies, we use three measures, quoted spread, effective spread, and adverse selection component. The results indicate that an intensive risk tone and uncertain information in annual reports lead to decreased liquidity. In addition we find that risk sentiment variable impacts the liquidity but not vice versa.     

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

This paper applies a nonlinear Autoregressive Distribute Lag to examine the exchange rate pass-through into consumer price inflation in Mexico. Overall, the evidence confirmed that ignoring the asymmetric (sign) effect of exchange rate movements on inflation may lead to incorrect inferences and policy conclusions. Exchange rate fluctuation is transferred to prices level more during currency depreciation than appreciation. We compare the macroeconomic performances between pre- and post-inflation targeting, and our findings reaffirmed that the pass-through has weakened significantly after launching inflation targeting in 2001. This result implies that low inflation in the sample period examined is good for Mexico because exchange rate pass-through declines after 2001. Consumer prices have become less responsive to exchange rate movements. We further observe a revival (strengthening) of oil price pass-through to domestic inflation in the post- inflation targeting period.     

试论《物权法》中的房地产登记制度

随着房地产市场的繁荣发展,房地产交易主体之间的法律关系也日益复杂,《物权法》中规定了不动产登记制度不仅有利于保障公民的财产权,也有利于保障市场交易安全。文章针对《物权法》的相关规定,提出了我国房地产登记制度的必要性以及存在的问题和完善建议。     

Recurrence plots analysis of the CNY exchange markets based on phase space reconstruction

The employment of autocorrelation-based transformation to study the dynamics of the exchange rate system is meaningful because it benefits for chaotic prediction on the basis that the transformation from an exchange rate sequence to its associated autocorrelation sequence is reversible. This paper examines the influence of autocorrelation-based transformation on the systemic dynamics using exchange rates of CNY against different currencies among USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, MYR and RUB. First, we construct recurrence plots of exchange rate return sequences and autocorrelation sequences with a fixed sliding window length of 20. The recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) shows that the exchange rate return sequences exhibit lower degrees of determinism than the autocorrelation sequences. Further, by analyzing the RQA measures with bootstrap techniques and box plots, we reveal that the RQA measures of the exchange rate return systems and the autocorrelation sequence systems are mostly significant, and the vertical structures of recurrence plots of autocorrelation sequences are more sensitive to the shuffles of bootstrap techniques. Finally, we investigate the evolution of RQA measures with the changes of sliding window lengths. The analysis shows that appropriately adjusting the sliding window length can increase the systemic determinism.     

基于可持续增长率的杜邦分析体系的研究

在经济全球化大环境下，企业具有更加多样化的会计信息，也就更需要能全面反映企业业绩的财务分析体系。多年来传统杜邦分析法虽因能系统、全面、直观地反映企业财务状况，提高对财务报表的分析效率，提升经营管理能力而得到企业的广泛应用，但它本身存在着诸多缺陷。针对其局限性，本文引入可持续增长率来改进传统的杜邦分析体系以更加符合现代企业的要求。     

Herding behavior in the Pakistan stock exchange: Some new insights

This study attempts to examine the presence of herding behavior in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The novel contribution of this paper is that it investigates the herding phenomenon from a large number of facets such as herding of firms towards market, herding of firms towards industry portfolios, herding of industry portfolios towards market, herding in mostly traded stocks and in large and small stocks, and herding in the crisis period. For this purpose, we use the herding behavior model of Christie and Huang (1995) on the daily closing prices data of 609 firms listed on the PSX from January 2004 to December 2013. Results show that individual firms do not herd towards market index, except when the market experiences a negative return of 5%. However, when we sort firms into small and large groups based on median market capitalization, results indicate that large firms show herding behavior in extreme market movements. Further, we find that firms in several industries herd towards their industry portfolios. However, we find weak evidence of industry portfolios herding towards the market. We also segregate the impact of financial crisis of 2008 from normal times. These findings support results of our baseline estimation.     

基于广义价值论的内生增长理论初探

增长理论是经济学的重要部分，关系到每一个人的福利和一个国家的地位。文章运用广义价值论研究经济增长问题，以分工为切入点，把分工产生的新增利益和该利益的公平分配统一起来，论述了递增性假设之外另一条增长的可能路径。主要结论如下：（1）基于比较优势的分工交换可以持续地产生比较利益即超过自给自足收益的净收益，这一收益不依赖于技术的递增或递减变化，具有普遍持久稳定性；（2）由分工交换产生的净收益构成原始积累的重要来源，既促进了生产规模和分工范围的扩大，又支持了研发和技术进步；（3）劳动生产力任何提高的效应都通过分工交换产生的比较利益加以放大，在一个分工交换系统中，行为主体提高比较优势产品和比较劣势产品的生产力分别具有正的和负的外部性；（4）基于广义价值论的内生经济增长体现了效率与公平的统一，一个好的制度是能够保证在交易中各方的比较利益率相等，掠夺性制度不仅直接损害经济增长，也不具备长期可持续性。     

Microstructures,financial reforms and informational efficiency in an emerging market

This paper investigates the effects of microstructures and financial reforms on time-varying informational efficiency in an emerging equity market setting. Our data comprises of firm level data from the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange, over the period 1990–2013. Using a dynamic panel regression framework while controlling for firm size, we find that microstructures, specifically liquidity, volatility, automation and the number of shareholders have an important role in influencing the time-varying efficiency of this emerging market. The financial reforms, namely liberalisation and regulation are not found to have a notable influence. We also consider heterogeneity at the firm level, finding that the microstructures of the banking firms listed in this market have a greater impact on market efficiency, in relation to the other listed firms.     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.